Evidence
How we know when things happened
Every date on the timeline came from somewhere. Some are documented to the hour. Some are estimates with error bars in the millions.
Three kinds of date
The first kind is documented. A contemporary record — a treaty, a newspaper, a launch log, a patent — states when something happened, and other records corroborate it. These are the dates that can carry a day and a month.
The second kind is measured. No one wrote anything down, but the material itself carries a clock: decaying isotopes, annual growth rings, layered ice. These dates arrive with a stated uncertainty, and quoting one without it is a misuse of the result.
The third kind is inferred. A date is bracketed by other things: this pottery style, that stratum, a ruler's regnal years, an eclipse mentioned in a chronicle. Inferred dates are often good to a decade or a century and almost never to a year, which is why so much ancient history is written with 'about' in front of it.
When the documents disagree with the calendar
Even a well-documented date can be ambiguous, because the calendar underneath it changed. The Gregorian reform of 1582 removed ten days and altered the leap-year rule, and adoption was staggered across centuries — Britain and its colonies in 1752, Russia in 1918.
For events in between, sources may give an Old Style or a New Style date, differing by days or even by which year it was, since the year did not always begin on 1 January. Neither is wrong. What is wrong is quietly converting one to the other without saying so.
Radiocarbon, and where it stops
Living things take in carbon-14 while alive and stop at death, after which it decays with a half-life of about 5,730 years. Measure how much is left in bone, charcoal, textile or wood and you get a time since death. It is the workhorse of archaeology.
It has two well-understood limits. After roughly 50,000 years too little carbon-14 remains to measure reliably, so anything older needs a different method. And the atmospheric level of carbon-14 has varied over time, so raw results must be converted through a calibration curve built from independently dated material — which is why a radiocarbon date is properly quoted as a range with a confidence level, not as a year.
Counting layers, and the very long clocks
Some materials lay down one countable layer a year. Tree rings give dendrochronology, where overlapping patterns from living trees and old timber extend continuous chronologies back more than ten thousand years — and, at their best, date a felling to a single year and season. Ice cores and lake varves work on the same principle over longer spans.
Past that, radiometric methods take over, each suited to a different range: potassium-argon and argon-argon for volcanic rock over hundreds of thousands to billions of years, uranium-lead on zircon crystals for the oldest material on Earth. These are how the deep-time figures are established, and they are cross-checked against each other far more often than the confident single numbers in a textbook suggest.
Why a range is the honest answer
A game that demands a single year for every event has two options when the evidence will not supply one: pick a number and pretend, or represent the uncertainty. QuoAnno does the second. Events whose evidence supports only a range store that range, and any guess inside it scores in full.
It also affects how questions are written. If an invention involved several people over a decade, the question names a specific, datable milestone rather than asking when something was 'invented'. False precision in the wording is the same error as false precision in the data.
Common questions
How accurate is radiocarbon dating?
For material under about 50,000 years old and properly calibrated, typically within a few decades to a few centuries depending on age and sample quality. It is reported as a range with a confidence level rather than a single year, and anything older needs a different method.
Why are some historical dates given as 'about' or 'circa'?
Because the evidence is inferred rather than documented or measured — bracketed by stratigraphy, artefact styles, regnal lists or later chronicles. Those methods are often reliable to a decade or a century but not to a year.
Why do sources disagree about dates in the 1600s and 1700s?
Usually calendar reform. Countries switched from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar at different times between 1582 and 1918, so the same event can carry an Old Style and a New Style date differing by days, and sometimes by the year number.
Keep going
Where to next
Further reading
Independent sources
This guide is written for QuoAnno. These references cover the same ground in more depth and are not the source of the wording above.
More guides
The rest of the series
Your turn